scidialНаучный диалогNauchnyi dialog2225-756X2227-1295Limited Liability Company "Center for Scientific and Educational Projects" (CSEP)10.24224/2227-1295-2023-12-4-488-508scidial-4566Research ArticleИСТОРИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИHISTORYЭфиопско-сомалийский Конфликт 1977—1978 годов: по данным Центрального разведывательного управления СШАEthiopian-Somali Conflict 1977—1978: According to US Central Intelligence Agencyhttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-9196-7291ТухватуллинР. Р.TukhvatullinR. R.

Тухватуллин Рустэм Расфарович - кандидат исторических наук, доцент кафедры зарубежной истории Института истории и государственного управления.

Уфа

Rustem R. Tukhvatullin - PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Foreign History, Institute of History and Public Administration.

Ufa

rtuhvatullin21@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-4468-1103КудашевУ. Н.KudashevU. N.

Кудашев Усман Набиуллович – аспирант кафедры зарубежной истории Института истории и государственного управления

Уфа

Usman N. Kudashev - Graduate Student, Department of Foreign History, Institute of History and State Management.

Ufa

usman-kudashev@yandex.ruУфимский университет науки и технологийРоссияUfa University of Science and TechnologyRussian Federation202329052023124488508Copyright © Тухватуллин Р.Р., Кудашев У.Н., 20232023Тухватуллин Р.Р., Кудашев У.Н.Tukhvatullin R.R., Kudashev U.N.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.nauka-dialog.ru/jour/article/view/4566

Предметом исследования является анализ Центральным разведывательным управлением (ЦРУ) США военных и политических аспектов войны в Огадене (1977—1978). На основе рассекреченных и опубликованных на сайте Управления документов выявляются основные вопросы, связанные с сомалийско-эфиопским конфликтом, волновавшие ЦРУ. Устанавливается степень осведомленности Управления о тех или иных событиях, связанных с войной в Огадене, а также определяется, насколько удачными были прогнозы, выдвинутые в ходе конфликта. С привлечением отечественной, американской, эфиопской и сомалийской историографии показано, что ЦРУ, несмотря на недостаток информации, достаточно точно устанавливало отдельные факты, но регулярно ошибалось в своих суждениях о дальнейших событиях. Освещаются прогнозы Управления в отношении возможного конфликта между Эфиопией и Сомали в январе — июле 1977 года, оказавшиеся верными только в мелочах либо в очевидных фактах. Показывается, что ЦРУ верно оценило конфликтный потенциал в регионе, но не определило, где именно начнется война. Относительно роли ЦРУ в освещении боевых действий в Огадене в июле 1977 — марте 1978 годов отмечается, что Управление удачно выявляло краткосрочные тенденции, но не устанавливало долгосрочные.

The analysis by the US Central Intelligence Agency of the military and political aspects of the Ogaden War (1977—1978) is considered. On the basis of declassified and published documents, the main issues related to the Somali-Ethiopian conflict that worried the CIA are revealed. It establishes the degree of awareness of the Office about certain events related to the war in the Ogaden, and also determines how successful the forecasts made during the conflict were. With the involvement of domestic, American, Ethiopian and Somali historiography, it is shown that the CIA, despite the lack of information, established certain facts quite accurately, but regularly made mistakes in their judgments about further events. The forecasts of the Office regarding a possible conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia in January — July 1977, which turned out to be correct only in small things or in obvious facts, are highlighted. It is shown that the CIA correctly identified the conflict potential in the region, but did not determine exactly where the war would begin. Regarding the role of the CIA in covering the fighting in the Ogaden in July 1977 — March 1978 it is noted that the Office was successful in identifying short-term trends, but did not establish long-term ones.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.